Work back from the deals you want

What it does

Most founders pick a channel, then find out what it can do. Run it the other way. Start from the deals you want each month and work back, rate by rate, to the number of people you’d have to reach. It costs nothing, and it tells you in 30 minutes whether a channel can get you there at all.

What you need

• How many new customers you want a month
• Your own rates if you have them: close rate, show rate and reply rate
• A rough count of the companies that fit (see count your market)

How it works

1. 1

   Write down the chain

   Every outbound deal goes through the same steps: contacted, replied with interest, booked, showed up, qualified, signed. Each step has a rate. Use your own where you have them. Where you don’t, start from these targets, and say they’re targets:

   • 20% of qualified calls sign
   • 80% of people who show up qualify
   • 75% of booked calls show up
   • 30% of interested replies book
   • 2% of the people you contact reply with interest
2. 2

   Work back from the deals

   Divide by each rate in turn, and round up at every step, since you can’t hold a third of a call.

   Google Sheets: paste into A1

   New customers you want a month	5
   Qualified calls that sign	20%
   Shows that qualify	80%
   Bookings that show up	75%
   Interested replies that book	30%
   Contacts who reply with interest	2%
   
   Qualified calls needed	=ROUNDUP(B1/B2,0)
   Shows needed	=ROUNDUP(B8/B3,0)
   Bookings needed	=ROUNDUP(B9/B4,0)
   Interested replies needed	=ROUNDUP(B10/B5,0)
   Contacts needed a month	=ROUNDUP(B11/B6,0)
   Contacts a working day	=ROUNDUP(B12/21,0)

3. 3

   Check it against your market

   Compare the contacts you need a month with the number of people who fit. If you need 7,000 a month and your whole market is 5,000 people, outbound alone can’t get you there, and you just found out for free. You’ll need a second channel, a bigger deal size, or a better close rate.

4. 4

   Check it against your sending capacity

   Three emails a contact, 30 sends a day per inbox and three inboxes per domain is a safe sizing rule. Sends per working day = new contacts a week × 3 ÷ 5. Inboxes = that ÷ 30. Domains = inboxes ÷ 3. See set up sending domains for the setup.

5. 5

   Turn every rate into a target

   Each rate in the chain is an assumption until you’ve measured it. Write them down as this month’s targets, then check the real ones every week. The first rate that comes in low is the one to fix.

What good looks like

A one-line answer to “can this channel get us there?”, with the contacts a day it takes, and a list of targets you’ll measure against from week one.

Mistakes to skip

• Planning on the target rates without testing them. Send a small first batch, then redo the math with your own reply rate.
• Forgetting the show rate. A booked call isn’t a held call.
• Leaving out sending capacity. The math can say 340 contacts a day while your inboxes can safely send a third of that.